Table 5 Sensitivity analysis: number of cases avoided for the different boys and girls vaccination strategies versus boys and girls base case analysis (vaccine coverage rate: 70%, lifelong protection) and the corresponding relative reductions
Absolute reduction (increase) of remaining cases (n) versus base case GNV vaccination strategy | Relative reduction (increase) of remaining cases (%) versus base case GNV vaccination strategy | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Duration of protection | Lifetime | 32 years | |||||||||
Coverage rate | 50% | 90% | 70% | 50% | 90% | ||||||
Vaccination strategy | B | C | D | E | F | B | C | D | E | F | |
Female | Genital warts | 40,271 | −24,568 | 68,313 | 108,009 | 38,674 | 160.6 | −98.0 | 272.5 | 430.8 | 154.3 |
Cervical cancer | 3,212 | −1,692 | 5,685 | 8,853 | 3,092 | 148.4 | −78.2 | 262.7 | 409.1 | 142.9 | |
Vulvar cancer | 337 | −158 | 568 | 925 | 285 | 130.3 | −61.2 | 219.5 | 357.4 | 110.1 | |
Vaginal cancer | 139 | −63 | 236 | 388 | 116 | 140.3 | −63.7 | 238.2 | 392.2 | 117.6 | |
Anal cancer | 357 | −192 | 598 | 978 | 300 | 104.6 | −56.3 | 175.1 | 286.4 | 88.0 | |
Head/neck cancer | 305 | −163 | 504 | 832 | 250 | 104.6 | −55.9 | 173.0 | 285.3 | 85.6 | |
Total cancers | 4,351 | −2,269 | 7,591 | 11,976 | 4,044 | 137.9 | −71.9 | 240.6 | 379.6 | 128.2 | |
Male | Genital warts | 49,534 | −34,444 | 77,279 | 122,846 | 43,104 | 140.6 | −97.8 | 219.3 | 348.6 | 122.3 |
Penile cancers | 155 | −124 | 237 | 358 | 130 | 44.1 | −35.2 | 67.3 | 101.6 | 37.0 | |
Anal cancers | 225 | −129 | 351 | 576 | 173 | 98.0 | −56.0 | 152.7 | 250.6 | 75.1 | |
Head/neck cancer | 1,669 | −931 | 2,636 | 4,331 | 1,306 | 108.6 | −60.6 | 171.5 | 281.8 | 85.0 | |
Total cancers | 2,050 | −1,184 | 3,224 | 5,264 | 1,609 | 96.7 | −55.9 | 152.2 | 248.5 | 75.9 | |
Female + Male | Genital warts | 89,805 | −59,013 | 145,592 | 230,855 | 81,778 | 148.9 | −97.9 | 241.4 | 382.8 | 135.6 |
Total cancers | 6,400 | −3,453 | 10,815 | 17,240 | 5,653 | 121.4 | −65.5 | 205.1 | 326.9 | 107.2 | |