Fig. 10

Decision curve analysis of nomograms in different cohorts and model comparisons with AJCC stages. a One-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in the training cohort. b One-, 3-, and 5-year OS in the training cohort. c One-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in the validation cohort. d One-, 3-, and 5-year OS in the validation cohort. e One- and 3-year CSS in the test cohort. f One- and 3-year OS in the test cohort. g Nomogram comparisons of the 6th and 7th versions of the AJCC stages for predicting 5-year CSS in the training cohort. h Nomogram comparisons of the 6th and 7th versions of the AJCC stages for predicting 5-year OS in the training cohort. Cyan horizontal lines represent the assumption that events occurred in no patient within a particular timespan. Red lines represent the assumption that events occurred in all patients within the same timespan. Blue lines represent the net benefit of model prediction. The net benefit per patient of each predictive model within a particular timespan was a function of the cohort size with threshold probability, and was computed by addition of the benefit (true positive) and subtraction of the harm (false positive). g, h Note that the red “assume all” lines overlap and appear to be a single line for both the nomogram and the 6th- and 7th-version AJCC stages prediction. This occurred because they were constructed using the same cohorts and time points. CSS, cancer-specific survival; OS, overall survival; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer