Table 6 Accuracy of a positive risk score (> 10 points) to diagnose both ACN and CCR in the validation cohort (Phase II) and in the derivation plus validation cohorts (Phase I + Phase II). Frequency of colonoscopy prioritization with the associated miss of either CRC or AA cases for a Score > 10
PHASE II | |||
|---|---|---|---|
ACN | Control group (non-AA, non-CRC) | Total | |
Score > 10 | 118 (47 CCR) | 198 | 316 |
Score ≤ 10 | 30 (2 CCR) | 282 | 312 |
Total | 148 | 480 | 628 |
ACN | CRC | ||
Sensitivity (%) | 79 (72–85.4)† | 96 (85–99) | |
Specificity (%) | 58 (54.2–63) | 52 (48–56) | |
PPV (%) | 37 (32–42.7) | 14.4 (11–19) | |
NPV (%) | 90 (87–93.2) | 99.3 (97–99.9) | |
Diagnostic OR | 5.6 (3.6–8.7) | 25.4 (6.1–106) | |
LR (+) | 1.93 (1.7–2.2) | 1.99 (1.8–2.2) | |
LR (−) | 0.34 (0.25–0.48) | 0.08 (0.02–0.30) | |
Prevalence (%) | 23.6 | 7.8 | |
Score ≤ 10 | N | (%) Loss | |
Missed cases of CRC | 2 | 4.1 | |
Missed cases of AA | 28 | 28.3 | |
Score > 10 | N | (%) Prioritization | |
Prioritization | 316 | 50.3 | |
PHASE I + PHASE II | |||
ACN | Control group (non-AA, non-CRC | Total | |
Score > 10 | 270 (114 CRC) | 468 | 738 |
Score ≤ 10 | 49 (2 CRC) | 708 | 757 |
Total | 319 | 1176 | 1495 |
ACN | CRC | ||
Sensitivity (%) | 85 (80.3–88)† | 98 (93–99.7) | |
Specificity (%) | 60 (57.4–63) | 53 (51–56) | |
PPV | 36 (33.2–40) | 15 (13–18) | |
NPV | 93.5 (91.5–95) | 99.7 (99–100) | |
Diagnostic OR | 8.3 (6–11.5) | 65.2 (16–265) | |
LR (+) | 2.12 (1.95–2.31) | 2.10 (1.98–2.24) | |
LR (−) | 0.25 (0.20–0.33) | 0.03 (0.008–0.13) | |
Prevalence (%) | 21.3 | 7.76 | |
Score ≤ 10 | N | (%) Loss | |
Missed cases of CRC | 2 | 1.7 | |
Missed cases of AA | 47 | 23 | |
Score > 10 | N | (%) Prioritization | |
Prioritization | 738 | 49.3 |