Surrogacy of one-year survival for overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Jin, Yuzhi; Ren, Hui; Yue, Qianhua; Wu, Wei; Liu, Chuan; Guo, Yixuan; Zhao, Peng

doi:10.1186/s12885-024-12000-7

BMC Cancer

Table 2 Detailed results of surrogacy assessment on different endpoints

From: Surrogacy of one-year survival for overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

	Subgroups	Included trials	Included patients	R2	95% confidence interval
ORR ratio – OS HR	All trials	24	11,924	0.27	0.03–0.56
mORR ratio – OS HR	All trials	9	2,960	0.55	0.07–0.90
PFS
Median PFS—median OS	All trials	32	13,808	0.32	0.08–0.55
	ICIs relevant	3	1,657	0.70	0.01–1.00
	ICIs irrelevant	29	12,151	0.41	0.16–0.67
	LT relevant	4	714	0.80	0.56–0.98
	LT irrelevant	28	13,094	0.31	0.08–0.56
	Phase II	7	983	0.44	0.09–0.86
	Phase III	25	12,825	0.31	0.05–0.54
	First-line setting	18	8,415	0.30	0.04–0.64
	secondary or later-line setting	14	5,393	0.13	0.02–0.42
	2008–2015	9	4,915	0.21	0.02–0.62
	2016–2022	23	8,893	0.39	0.13–0.65
	PFS HR ≤ 0.6	11	3,928	0.48	0.16–0.80
	PFS HR > 0.6	21	9,880	0.30	0.03–0.63
PFS HR – OS HR	All trials	32	13,808	0.58	0.40–0.79
	ICIs relevant	3	1,657	0.86	0.00–1.00
	ICIs irrelevant	29	12,151	0.61	0.42–0.82
	LT relevant	4	714	0.68	0.15–1.00
	LT irrelevant	28	13,094	0.58	0.39–0.82
	Phase II	7	983	0.78	0.38–0.99
	Phase III	25	12,825	0.55	0.33–0.81
	First-line setting	18	8,415	0.57	0.29–0.96
	secondary or later-line setting	14	5,393	0.73	0.45–0.89
	2008–2015	9	4,915	0.54	0.08–0.95
	2016–2022	23	8,893	0.62	0.45–0.82
	PFS HR ≤ 0.6	11	3,928	0.40	0.01–0.82
	PFS HR > 0.6	21	9,880	0.37	0.05–0.70
1-yr survival
1-yr survival rate – median OS	All trials	32	13,808	0.74	0.63–0.88
	ICIs relevant	3	1,657	0.51	0.02–0.99
	ICIs irrelevant	29	12,151	0.70	0.57–0.88
	LT relevant	4	714	0.46	0.01–0.99
	LT irrelevant	28	13,094	0.75	0.64–0.88
	Phase II	7	983	0.55	0.19–0.98
	Phase III	25	12,825	0.76	0.05–0.89
	First-line setting	18	8,415	0.69	0.55–0.88
	secondary or later-line setting	14	5,393	0.84	0.64–0.94
	2008–2015	9	4,915	0.65	0.39–0.96
	2016–2022	23	8,893	0.77	0.68–0.86
	PFS HR ≤ 0.6	11	3,928	0.77	0.61–0.98
	PFS HR > 0.6	21	9,880	0.75	0.62–0.92
1-yr survival ratio – OS HR	All trials	32	13,808	0.65	0.47–0.99
	ICIs relevant	3	1,657	0.49	0.00–1.00
	ICIs irrelevant	29	12,151	0.72	0.41–0.87
	LT relevant	4	714	0.90	0.57–1.00
	LT irrelevant	28	13,094	0.64	0.44–0.98
	Phase II	7	983	0.76	0.45–1.00
	Phase III	25	12,825	0.63	0.19–0.84
	First-line setting	18	8,415	0.64	0.24–0.87
	secondary or later-line setting	14	5,393	0.66	0.20–0.86
	2008–2015	9	4,915	0.74	0.12–0.95
	2016–2022	23	8,893	0.66	0.33–0.86
	PFS HR ≤ 0.6	11	3,928	0.75	0.42–0.95
	PFS HR > 0.6	21	9,880	0.42	0.12–0.84

Abbreviations: ORR Objective response rate, OS Overall survival, HR Hazard ratio, mORR ORR Evaluated by mRECIST, PFS Progression-free survival, ICIs Immune checkpoint inhibitors, LT Locoregional treatment

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